Landscape history as a dynamic process – effects on species distribution in the future

Name: Landscape history as a dynamic process – effects on species distribution in the future
Researchers: Dostálek Tomáš (member in research team)
Hemrová Lucie (member in research team)
Knappová Jana (member in research team)
Münzbergová Zuzana (member in research team)
Project Type: B - national grants (GA ČR, GA AVČR)
Realization from: 2010
Realization to: 2014
Summary: Strong recent and predicted future changes in landscapes, in terms of structure, land use and climate, have initiated development of models attempting to predict species distributions in the future and consequently prospects of their longterm survival. We suggest that these models could benefit from knowledge obtained in studies exploring the effect of past landscape change on present species distribution. We plan to demonstrate this by developing a model of species dynamics in the landscape including also dynamics of the landscape itself. We will parameterize the model using data on past landscape dynamics and species traits. We will use the model to predict species distribution in two types of habitats – current dry grasslands and newly abandoned fields and use the fit between the model predictions and real species distribution to modify the model inputs. Then we will use this model to predict future species distribution in the landscape given expected changes of the landscape.

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